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Author Topic: Seems as though this current pandemic was foreseen and warned against in 2007  (Read 6567 times)

coelacanth

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From the journal, Clinical Microbiology Reviews of October 2007:

https://cmr.asm.org/content/by/year      go to October 2007   Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus as an agent of emerging and reemerging infection.

Its long, dry and much of it is over my head but at the beginning The Abstract, followed by The Introduction and culminating with a conclusion titled Should We Be Ready For The Reemergence of SARS at the end of the article is interesting, timely and also pretty damning to my way of thinking. 
« Last Edit: March 18, 2020, 07:21:37 pm by coelacanth »
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    booksmart

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    Makes me glad the Senate and House saw fit to countermand the Trump Administration's attempts to cut the funding for the CDC - they actually increased it.

    coelacanth

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    Well, hindsight is always 100%.   What might have been better is if the CDC and all the rest of the Washington alphabet soup of bureaucratic agencies had developed an actual plan to prevent what was warned about in the journal report.  Its not like they didn't have any data to go on and considering the SARS and MERS outbreaks were close in both time and defining characteristics, it seems there was plenty of warning. 

    I'm no expert on this stuff - just an interested bystander - but it seems to me that there is an unbroken line of research conclusions pointing to exactly what we are experiencing.  Published research papers as far back as 1990 indicate exactly what we are being told in dribs and drabs by those we are depending on to lead us through this.  Both veterinary and human microbiologists were saying that this exact thing could happen and when it did during the SARS outbreak they then warned it could and likely would happen again. 

    Seems a shame it takes something like this for our "experts" to connect the dots - and only then after the fact.  If you're attempting to lay this at the feet of the current administration you're either uninformed or motivated more by your politics than good sense. 
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    wyatt

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    booksmart

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    Seems a shame it takes something like this for our "experts" to connect the dots - and only then after the fact.  If you're attempting to lay this at the feet of the current administration you're either uninformed or motivated more by your politics than good sense. 

    *waggles hand*  A lot of this situation is because of not listening to experts - something Trump is notorious for. He has the Big Brain, and Knows The Everything, and you can't tell him different or you get yelled at and/or fired.

    We see this in his behavior damn near every week.  There's a report out that the Obama Administration did a War Game Pandemic Outbreak scenario with Trump Administration, on the way out.

    https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/03/pandemic-coronavirus-united-states-trump-cdc/608215/

    Quote
    We were warned in 2017, a week before inauguration day, when Lisa Monaco, Barack Obama’s outgoing homeland-security adviser, gathered with Donald Trump’s incoming national-security officials and conducted an exercise modeled on the administration’s experiences with outbreaks of swine flu, Ebola, and Zika. The simulation explored how the U.S. government should respond to a flu pandemic that halts international travel, upends global supply chains, tanks the stock market, and burdens health-care systems—all with a vaccine many months from materializing. “The nightmare scenario for us, and frankly to any public-health expert that you would talk to, has always been a new strain of flu or a respiratory illness because of how much easier it is to spread” relative to other pandemic diseases that aren’t airborne, Monaco told me.

    https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/16/trump-inauguration-warning-scenario-pandemic-132797
    « Last Edit: March 19, 2020, 02:05:37 pm by booksmart »

    coelacanth

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    *waggles hand*  A lot of this situation is because of not listening to experts - something Trump is notorious for. He has the Big Brain, and Knows The Everything, and you can't tell him different or you get yelled at and/or fired.

    We see this in his behavior damn near every week.  There's a report out that the Obama Administration did a War Game Pandemic Outbreak scenario with Trump Administration, on the way out.

    https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/03/pandemic-coronavirus-united-states-trump-cdc/608215/

    https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/16/trump-inauguration-warning-scenario-pandemic-132797
    "Cocks an eyebrow" Yes, a lot of not listening to experts has gone on.  Even by the experts.  Again, trying to lay this at the feet of the current administration requires ignorance or a suspension of disbelief.   :scrutiny

    I read the article from The Atlantic and it was one of the things that lead me to investigate further.  The reason I didn't link it was because it ignored the stuff that I found in the Journal of Clinical Microbiology in favor of what seemed to be yet another politically motivated screed.  Not particularly helpful unless you're looking bolster your confirmation bias. 

    The Politico article is more of the same. 

    If we are going to point fingers at elected ( and appointed ) officials for not "listening to experts" we need to start long before the current administration.  Your quote from the article in The Atlantic begs the question why no plan was put into place prior to the week before the inauguration of the new president.  The Obama ( and Bush, previously ) administration had the same data to work from that I found and linked here and yet no workable plan was put together by either them or anyone else charged with such things. 

    The fact that they reportedly sat down and "war gamed" it with the incoming administration indicates it was at least considered as a possibility but apparently not taken seriously enough to actually implement any effective counter to the threat.  Or was it just a gamble that they could  get lucky and leave it for the next guy?   :hmm    Whatever the truth is, I'm not here for any other purpose than to try and shed some light on the situation as it exists and help us all get through it with a whole skin.  I'll not try to defend the indefensible regardless where the fault lies no matter when or where the problem started or who shares the blame. 

    The point is, legions of politicians and bureaucratic minions are somehow considered "experts" when the truth is you and I are probably as well suited to making those decisions as they are.   People get sick every day and people die every day but somehow we don't get worked up about it unless it affects us directly or we get a face full of it from the internet or the media.  It seems to me the problems with that approach are becoming more apparent by the day. 
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    booksmart

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    People get sick every day and people die every day but somehow we don't get worked up about it unless it affects us directly or we get a face full of it from the internet or the media.  It seems to me the problems with that approach are becoming more apparent by the day. 

    I'll drink to that... and maybe because of that...

    TommyGunn

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     :scrutiny   Because a speculative report was issued  in 2017,   we should have been prepared for THE ANDROMEDA STRAIN  Covid-19  right now? ? ? :shrug   
     
    Has any government ever  been so forsighted?


    Oh,  and  :panic
    "Through ignorance of what is good and what is bad, the life of men is greatly perplexed." ~~ Cicero.

    coelacanth

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    Actually, research indicated what might be coming as early as 1990 in published papers from the microbiology folks.  It took a while to correlate the results from several fields - genetics, veterinary microbiology, human microbiology and infectious disease research.   That took place during the 1990's and when the scope of the potential problem was realized some of the researchers were in full freak-out mode.

    Getting that information in front of the people responsible for actually doing what would be necessary in a worst case scenario was the first task and when it didn't seem to be working as planned there wasn't really a good alternative.  It amounted to realizing your house was on fire and calling 911 and getting a recording saying "We're out of the office at the moment.  Please leave a message and we'll get back to you.".   :shocked

    The SARS outbreak hit a few years later and the result is a matter of historical record.  After studying that outbreak and correlating the data with previous research results a clearer picture was drawn which resulted in the publication of the research I referenced in the OP from the October 2007 Journal of Clinical Microbiology.   The warning(s) and predictions could not have been any clearer.  Even a layman like myself can see that because those parts of the report were written in plain, non-technical jargon that explained things in language any functioning adult could understand.  Unfortunately that seems to be well beyond what we can expect from government bureaucrats, elected officials, national media sources and those parts of private industry more concerned with kissing all the aforementioned a$$e$ than solving actual problems. 

    The attention span and the IQ of those folks can be measured in double digits for the best of them and single digits for the rest, IMO.   :scrutiny

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    TommyGunn

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     :-\  So "what might be coming"  should be enough to kick-start  a  clumsy kakistocracy into dealing with a problem that might happen in 30 years?
     :rotfl

    Ain't gonna happen  ever. 
    "Through ignorance of what is good and what is bad, the life of men is greatly perplexed." ~~ Cicero.

    coelacanth

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    You're probably right.  Maybe we should just pour another drink and relax.  Nothing to see here.  Move along. 
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    LowKey

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    It, along with thousands of other examples in history,  should have kicked individuals into gear to prepare by themselves.
    Darwin spoke on the subject.

    TommyGunn

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    You're probably right.  Maybe we should just pour another drink and relax.  Nothing to see here.  Move along. 


    There's a lot to see here.   Outside of social distancing and good hygiene though,   there's not a lot we can do about this.

    It's GOING TO HAPPEN.


    So yes,  pour a drink.  Relax .  Play your DVD  of THE ANDROMEDA STRAIN.

    Just be safe, healthy and clean.
    "Through ignorance of what is good and what is bad, the life of men is greatly perplexed." ~~ Cicero.

    coelacanth

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    I agree that its going to happen.  And its going to continue happening.  What I'd like to see is less politics and less bureaucrats covering their a$$et$ and pretending they were in any way prepared for this even though they were warned about it over a decade ago by prominent researchers in various fields.

    I agree that in the final analysis we are all responsible for our own safety inasmuch as we can plan and prepare for it but kindly stop wasting my tax money on what is clearly not working.   Yes, that is the mother of all cans of worms but its its dangerous to leave me in self enforced isolation at home with a lot of time on my hands and access to the internet.   :whistle
    Arizona" A republic, if you can keep it."

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    booksmart

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    I agree that its going to happen.  And its going to continue happening.  What I'd like to see is less politics and less bureaucrats covering their a$$et$ and pretending they were in any way prepared for this even though they were warned about it over a decade ago by prominent researchers in various fields.

     :banghead

    RetroGrouch

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    Let's be realistic, ALL researchers write papers saying the sky will fall and you need to fund further research into their pet research project.  Even better if you make their hobby horse a priority and then they can be the head of hobby horses in the US government.


    The next Black Plague or "Spanish Flu" has been just around the corner since the last one.  They will come again, and we won't know where they are coming from, but they will cause problems when they get into small geographic areas with high numbers of people, thus high population densities, like most large metro areas.  You going to outlaw cities?  Or quarantine whole cities with force (that didn't help the ChiComs, did it?)?


    You can plan for these things, but most risk management relies on questionable data, to the point of using qualitative approaches rather than quantitative, as the errors bars exceed the range of useful information.  Hell, we are in the midst of one of these black swan events, and the data is all over the place, making the models worse than useless.  I've heard absurd estimates for the percent that will be infected, all the way up to everyone on the planet.  Likewise, I've heard that as high as 6% of everyone who gets it will die, all the way down to way below a tenth of one percent.


    You can't intelligently plan when you don't know the type of the next infection, how it arrives, the speed it spreads, how it spreads, how to treat it, how many will die, will it be chronic or burn out.


    My proposal, based on the previous SARS/MERS, is to isolate our country from the rest of the world to the point of everyone coming in gets at least their temperature taken, they shower and all their belongings disinfected before they are allowed into the country.  All shipping should be inspected for foreign biological content before being allowed past the docks.


    Short of that, this will happen again.  And we, as a country, will be less prepared than we would like.  On the individual level, you would need to be a dedicated prepper, and not everyone can.
    Arizona

    coelacanth

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    Good points.  I agree with most of them - maybe all of them - but the problem we face today with the estimates of both virulence and lethality are because the lessons were unheeded from the SARS outbreak.   We started out behind the curve because we didn't do what was necessary over the time between then and now and the problem was compounded by both the Chinese Communist Party leadership and the worse than worthless World Health Organization.  As far as the CCP quarantining a city, it appears they only did that after they realized the situation was out of hand because of the citywide potluck celebration of the Chinese Lunar New Year attended by upwards of 40,000 families in January.

    After that what we are seeing worldwide today was probably inevitable since there were no travel restrictions until the city was finally quarantined.
    Calling this a "black swan" event is media speak for the idea it was unforseen and unforseeable at the time it occurred but that doesn't seem to fit with my understanding of the facts so far. 

    We knew that the type(s) of corona virus responsible for SARS was capable of jumping from animals to humans as far back as that original outbreak and what we learned from that coupled with ongoing genetic research into corona virus strains made it not only possible but likely that it would reoccur.  Its not problematic to claim the sky is falling when you can state with ontological certainty that it will happen - probably sooner than later and here is peer reviewed proof for what is likely to happen and what might be done about it.  Better to fund actual research than something like the execrable WHO/UN so they can fly to "conferences" all over the world on our dime and stay in five star accommodations as guests those who would curry favor with them. 

    I have no intention of outlawing cities but, in all honesty, based on the ones I've seen and experienced it might not be a  bad idea.    :whistle

    If there is any value to this it may be that so many people are experiencing an "Oh s___" moment that our population won't get caught completely flat footed next time.   :coffee

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    booksmart

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    As far as the CCP quarantining a city, it appears they only did that after they realized the situation was out of hand because of the citywide potluck celebration of the Chinese Lunar New Year attended by upwards of 40,000 families in January.

    Which was literally a cosmic case of bad timing.  If this virus had cropped up at some other time of the year, it wouldn't have exploded the way it did.

    Of course, if Chinese "wet markets" had any clue about basic food sanitation, it wouldn't have cropped up either...  :coffee

    coelacanth

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    Yup.  As far as I can tell Murphy's Law is still in full force and effect.   :coffee
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    Plebian

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    Humans are incredibly bad at planning for low chance but high impact events. It is just not something evolution equipped us to handle.

    A significant disease outbreak going world wide is almost a certainty over time, but the odds of it happening in any one year is low. It is much the same with space impactors hitting Earth.

    Each year you prepare for it, and it doesn't happen seems wasteful. The year it happens and you were not prepared seems foolhardy as it was near guaranteed to occur AND was predicted.
    Oklahoma"If all our problems are solved, we'll find new ones to replace them. If we can't find new ones, we'll make new ones."

    coelacanth

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    Agreed.  We are definitely hard wired that way but most of us who have survived to adulthood realize that having lightning rods on the barn and the stable and the house are a good idea in a place prone to thunderstorms.  We also realize that using up your back stock of some item that comes in real handy in an emergency and then not replacing it later when the opportunity presents itself is just stupid.

    If evolution has proven anything it would be that agility, adaptability and problem solving are survival traits.  I'm trying to reconcile that idea with the idea of government generally and more specifically government bureaucracies.  An exercise that, so far, is notable chiefly for its lack of success. 
    Arizona" A republic, if you can keep it."

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    RetroGrouch

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    What really pisses me off is Dr. Fauci.  He has been head of the NIH since the mid 1980s.  There was CDC research after the last SARS outbreak that chloroquines would stop SARS from from infecting human cells.  Why wasn't all the research and testing needed to use this as a treatment done in the years since??  As the head of the NIH, and the lead on infectious diseases in administrations for over 30 years, all I see is CYA when he gets up there and says that all there is are anecdotal evidence and flawed studies.  Whose fault is that?!?
    Arizona

    Langenator

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    Which was literally a cosmic case of bad timing.  If this virus had cropped up at some other time of the year, it wouldn't have exploded the way it did.

    Of course, if Chinese "wet markets" had any clue about basic food sanitation, it wouldn't have cropped up either...  :coffee

    Except that the disease actually first surfaced in December, and the CCP ACTIVELY SUPPRESSED doctors in Wuhan who were trying to get the word out - as in, the lead doc was summoned to the local MSS office, forced to publicly recant, and then they ordered testing stopped and samples destroyed.

    (So the wokesters might have half a point: calling this the Chinese coronavirus or Wuhan virus isn't totally accurate.  It should be called the CCP virus or ChiCom virus.)

    And the U.S. response might have been better if the CDC wasn't wasting resources on things like guns, obesity, and racism, none of which are infectious diseases.  If they're going to be dumping money on things that have nothing to do with infectious diseases, they deserve to have those chunks of their budget taken away.

    Honestly, the biggest problem in my mind is that the rest of the world didn't slap an embargo on anyone who had been in China as soon as Dr. Li Wenliang emerged from the MSS offices and saying he was wrong about everything.

    Now, I know the military (what is now ARNORTH and NORTCOM) has, or at least had, as of 2000, various pandemic response plans, and that those plans had been made in consultation with FEMA regional offices.  I know this because I have a friend, retired Army officer, who worked on those plans when he was assigned to 5th Army before he retired in 2000.  Granted, those plans have probably gotten at least a little dusty thanks to the prioritization of the Forever Wars, but they should still exist somewhere in some file cabinet at Fort Sam Houston.

    The problem is that the first line response to most of this (other than closing borders to people who have traveled to infected areas, or quarantining returning citizens and resident aliens) starts at the local and state level, and who knows how much planning and preparation were done there?  And some of those local officials were making things worse (looking at Mayor DeBlasio, who 3 weeks ago was urging Gothamites to go out and party.  NYC now has almost half the U.S. cases of ChiCom virus.)

    Oh, there's also this: Johns Hopkins Study: USA More Prepared for Pandemic Than Any Other Country.  We had a similar problem in the Army: we'd look at ourselves and think, "Lord, but we're dorked up!" and forget to notice that other countries militaries were just as dorked up, if not worse.
    « Last Edit: March 26, 2020, 08:03:19 am by Langenator »
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    booksmart

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    Have you ever played the game "Pandemic"? https://www.amazon.com/Z-Man-Games-ZM7101-Pandemic/dp/B00A2HD40E

    It actually does a really good job of simulating what it's like fighting a pandemic (as real as it can be, and still be entertaining, at least).  It's a cooperative game, where you work *with* your players, instead of against.

    Guess what happens if someone doesn't want to cooperate with everyone else?  Yup: you're fluffed.

    It also does a good job demonstrating that a disease has to hit a certain infection density to really take off - critical mass, if you will.  Part of what's so rough about Covid-19 is that you can be sick with it for a week or two, walking around infecting other people, and *not even know it*.  Then you have roughly a week or two of symptoms of differing severity, then - assuming you live - you're back on your feet, eventually.  And the early symptoms for aren't much worse than the average flu, but *if* you're a high risk, then it gets Much more Serious.  Hell, kids barely even register they're sick, the little germ factories.

    And I call BS on the Johns Hopkins study, given the fact that we're still short of ventilators, there's a severe shortage of tests and our distribution networks for a lot of things - medical PPE and otherwise, are completely borked up right now.

    The fact that Obama's team scenario'd this before handing over the reins means that they had thought it happening, and had preparations in place. What happened to them is anybody's guess.

    As for Fauci, he's not head of NIH, he's head of National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, a branch of the NIH.  He's *a* boss, not The Boss. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthony_Fauci

    ksuguy

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    A large percentage of people never have any symptoms at all.   I'm pretty sure it was circulating around the world for at least a couple of months before people started worrying about it.  Unfortunately most of the tests only can identify people that are actively sick, and even then there is a high error rate and not a very big sample size being tested.   

    Hopefully this will serve to wake up some people about how it isn't necessarily a good idea to put all our manufacturing in the hands of foreign countries (especially China).  With a lot of the PPE, pharmaceuticals (and precursor chemicals) being made there, we're in a bind.    Also, just in time inventory systems should not always be used for everything.   It's great when everything is 100% efficient and going well,  but a disruptive event or sudden change in demand can quickly snowball out of control.           
    Kansas

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