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Author Topic: Seems as though this current pandemic was foreseen and warned against in 2007  (Read 6334 times)

booksmart

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And maybe more companies should keep reserve funds on hand instead of doing stock buybacks so two weeks of "WTFWASTHAT?!?" doesn't knock the global economy into the s___can and more than 1 3.3 million people off payroll. :-\
« Last Edit: March 26, 2020, 12:20:50 pm by booksmart »

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    ksuguy

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    Yeah, unfortunately I think a lot of upper echelon of corporate America and the government is riddled with sociopaths and the entire system is rigged to favor short term thinking over long term growth and stability.   

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    coelacanth

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    Humans are incredibly bad at planning for low chance but high impact events. It is just not something evolution equipped us to handle.

    A significant disease outbreak going world wide is almost a certainty over time, but the odds of it happening in any one year is low. It is much the same with space impactors hitting Earth.

    Each year you prepare for it, and it doesn't happen seems wasteful. The year it happens and you were not prepared seems foolhardy as it was near guaranteed to occur AND was predicted.
    Quoted for truth.  We suck at that kind of planning.  The people we elect and appoint to do that for us seem to be even worse at it than the garden variety citizen.   As has been pointed out, Dr. Fauci should have been all over this years ago but when you remember he gave up being a doctor to become a bureaucrat things begin to come into better focus.  The problem with bureaucracies is self evident.  As long as we vest great amounts of power and resources in them they will continue to fail.  Sometimes spectacularly.   

    We don't have to play a game created to simulate a pandemic.  We are involved in the real thing and have been for a long time.  As has been pointed out - if somebody decides to not cooperate everybody is hosed.  Can you say CCP boy's and girls?  I knew that you could.  :banghead
    Who's up for a nice big bowl of bat soup for an appetizer?  C'mon' don't be bashful - there's plenty to go around.  Happy New Year, y'all.   :facepalm   

    Any effective threat response requires identification of the weakest link(s) in the plan and action(s) taken to account for them.  That is where the bureaucratic mind ( hive or individual ) fails every time.  If we are serious about preventing this from happening again THAT is arguably the weakest link in any threat response plan.

    We don't have to guess what happened to our pandemic response plan under the Obama administration.  It is a matter of record.  They didn't even listen to their own bureaucrats.  Calling attention to a problem you back burnered for years just as you hand over the reins of government to the incoming team doesn't qualify as "preparations" to my way of thinking.  And while we're on the subject, neither did the governor of New York with regard to ventilators.  He can pi$$ and moan and wail about what he thinks the feds should be doing now but he's the one that flushed $750,000,000.00 down the toilet with a failed solar energy boondoggle in upstate New York instead of buying needed medical equipment and supplies that are desperately needed right now - especially since the mayor of New York city urged everybody to go out and party hearty just three weeks ago.  Idiot.

    Arizona" A republic, if you can keep it."

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    RetroGrouch

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    If you are a public company, the stockholders can FORCE you to use those cash reserves for stock buybacks, stock dividends, etc.  Only private companies or privately held public companies (those where 50+% of stock is held by say, the founder or a few family members) can NOT listen to the stock market.


    As far as Dr. Fauci, ok, he isn't head of the entire NIH, but the CDC and NIH were aware of the research for over a decade and did nothing.  Those chloroquine compounds have been around since the mid 1930s.  Side effects and safe dosages are very well known.  To withhold a possible treatment when you are concerned about hospitals being overwhelmed and thousands dying is unethical at the very least.  A study like they have done with many things we do every day could be going on right this second, giving those drugs to thousands and seeing if they made any difference in real world outcomes.


    My suspicion is that no one can make money off chloroquines, either from the pharmaceutical side or he research side, so they get downplayed.
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    booksmart

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    When your research budgets are screwed down tight, you tend to focus on research projects that solve high profile issues.

    Plebian

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    Allocating resources correctly is a hard problem to solve. We use an existing system, competition/capitalism, to address this. It seems to be the best system we have tried.

    The command economies never seem to work out well.

    We may just be too ignorant or not intelligent enough to produce a better system now.

    If we are comparing COVID-19 response to the Spanish flu. We are doing way better in solving it this time around/limiting effects.

    I just wished we, as humans, could learn head movement BEFORE we get struck in the face, repeatedly. 
    Oklahoma"If all our problems are solved, we'll find new ones to replace them. If we can't find new ones, we'll make new ones."

    LowKey

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    As with most things there should be moderation in using JIT.   I've a few years in the transportation industry, and it makes for lots more headaches while saving costs on storage.   I've expected something would eventually illustrate this as the Achilles heel that it is for decades.
    Manufacturers and stores need to go back to having substantial on-site storage.   Not acres of warehousing per se, but the current model of just having enough for today's needs is not sufficent if you wish any resiliency.
    Off the cuff, 1 week sounds about right as a buffer.

     
    A large percentage of people never have any symptoms at all.   I'm pretty sure it was circulating around the world for at least a couple of months before people started worrying about it.  Unfortunately most of the tests only can identify people that are actively sick, and even then there is a high error rate and not a very big sample size being tested.   

    Hopefully this will serve to wake up some people about how it isn't necessarily a good idea to put all our manufacturing in the hands of foreign countries (especially China).  With a lot of the PPE, pharmaceuticals (and precursor chemicals) being made there, we're in a bind.    Also, just in time inventory systems should not always be used for everything.   It's great when everything is 100% efficient and going well,  but a disruptive event or sudden change in demand can quickly snowball out of control.           

    Langenator

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    When your research budgets are screwed down tight, you tend to focus on research projects that solve high profile issues.

    Honestly, I think the CDC's ventures into non-contagious disease areas, some of which aren't even public health issues, is more a matter of justifying their existing budget and resource structure when the problem they're supposed to be dealing with (contagious disease, remember?) has been largely dealt with in the U.S., thanks to sanitation, vaccines, and antibiotics.

    Smallpox, polio, measles, mumps, rubella?  Pretty much any form of bacterial disease?  Not really issues.  Even HIV has been contained to the point where it's almost a self-inflicted wound caused by high risk behavior (unprotected sex and/or IV drugs).  They're left with working on drug-resistant bacteria, planning for low probability, high impact things like the ChiCom coronavirus or Ebola, and beating anti-vaxers with cluebats.

    IMHO, sending a bunch of CDC researchers to beat sense into Jenny McCarthy's head would be worth their whole budget, but that's just me.

    We all know that .gov agencies aren't allowed to get any smaller, so they come up with other things to do, outside their original mandate, to justify themselves.
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    booksmart

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    I'll also point out that the treatments using the quinine derivatives - hydroxychloroquine, etc., - are most likely to end up being paliatives, as they're historically used to cure protozoic pests, not virals.  Yes, they may improve the chances of survival for some, but they're not likely to prove as effective as a true cure or vaccine - and those take time to be created.

    Does that mean they shouldn't be researched? No. But don't hang your hat on them being a miracle, either.  And right now, a lot of people are clamoring for that miracle cure.

    kunkmiester

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    And maybe more companies should keep reserve funds on hand instead of doing stock buybacks so two weeks of "WTFWASTHAT?!?" doesn't knock the global economy into the s___can and more than 1 3.3 million people off payroll. :-\
    Most of the companies going under right now are small businesses, so it's not unreasonable they would have little or no reserves.
    WashingtonEvil is Evil, no matter how small

    Langenator

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    Most of the companies going under right now are small businesses, so it's not unreasonable they would have little or no reserves.

    I know there's a new bar a few miles from my house.  The guy had the incredible misfortune to open maybe a week or two before all the bars and restaurants were ordered to close for eating/drinking on premises.  And this one is just a bar - no food - so they're not allowed to do take out or deliver.

    How much cash reserve do you think that guy has?
    TexasFortuna Fortis Paratus

    booksmart

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    LowKey

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    They need to pass legislation roughly modeled on the Soldiers and Sailors Act; freezing debit (mortgage, car loands, CC, business loans) for individuals under quarantine or out of work due to shutdown for self isolation and businesses ordered closed.   
    Not a cure all, but would drastically reduce issues without costing the taxpayer.

    LowKey

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    Well, wish me luck.
    I'm heading into NY tomorrow am with a load of facemasks for the NYS Dept of Health....hope I don't get mobbed by the panicked, or worse yet forced to listen to Cuomo.

    Anyone want me to mail them a souvenir?  :coffee

    coelacanth

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    I'll also point out that the treatments using the quinine derivatives - hydroxychloroquine, etc., - are most likely to end up being paliatives, as they're historically used to cure protozoic pests, not virals.  Yes, they may improve the chances of survival for some, but they're not likely to prove as effective as a true cure or vaccine - and those take time to be created.

    Does that mean they shouldn't be researched? No. But don't hang your hat on them being a miracle, either.  And right now, a lot of people are clamoring for that miracle cure.
    Nothing wrong with palliative care.  Apparently the French doctor who has been having success with his treatment uses hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin for a week in patients testing positive for this latest viral infection and at the end of the course of treatment the majority of his patients are free of the virus and no longer test positive.   :hmm   That would be a real boon to an overburdened health care facility in a hot spot like New York City, no?   Preventing lung damage from the patient's immune response to the virus appears to be the primary benefit as apparently the overactive cytokine response damages lung tissue making it more susceptible to bacterial pneumonia.  I'm not a doctor and I don't play one on the internet but it sounds like a good place to start until an actual vaccine is developed.
    Arizona" A republic, if you can keep it."

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    booksmart

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    LowKey - Good luck, Godspeed, and stay healthy.

    C - I was under the impression that the symptomatic portion of the infection lasts about a week?  But yeah, preventing the lung damage is a bonus.

    LowKey

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    Thank you.

    Delivered FEMA's gift of joy into the hands of the NYS  Public Heath folks 12 hrs ahead of schedule (and they're not wasting any time either).
    Downside is that it seems that there may be a quarantine of the state, along with Connecticut and New Jersey and my thrice dammed "employer" thinks it's unwarranted panic on my part to want to move about 120 miles without compensation to get outside of the state lines before I shut down for 34 hours. :banghead
    While I sincerely doubt any possible quarantine would lock down the whole state (vs the city/metro area), or that such a lock down would apply to the people moving vital supplies (such as myself), I DO allow for the possibility of delays getting out of the state; either due to bottlenecking if they want to test prior to exit, or simple SNFU's regarding rules and criteria for who can go where.
    The fools thinks, actually said, "that can't happen here". :doh
     Talk about normalcy bias.


    Worse comes to worst, I'll do my Snake Plisken impersonation.   
    I think I look smashing with an eyepatch..... :cool
    LowKey - Good luck, Godspeed, and stay healthy.

    coelacanth

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    Pics or it didn't happen .  .  .    :cool
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    LowKey

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    Pics or it didn't happen .  .  .    :cool
    Wait one and check your PM's...

    booksmart

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    The fools thinks, actually said, "that can't happen here". :doh


    He actually said that?! He doesn't watch many movies... that virtually guarantees that it happens...

    goatroper

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    Nothing wrong with palliative care.  Apparently the French doctor who has been having success with his treatment uses hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin for a week in patients testing positive for this latest viral infection and at the end of the course of treatment the majority of his patients are free of the virus and no longer test positive.   :hmm   That would be a real boon to an overburdened health care facility in a hot spot like New York City, no?   Preventing lung damage from the patient's immune response to the virus appears to be the primary benefit as apparently the overactive cytokine response damages lung tissue making it more susceptible to bacterial pneumonia.  I'm not a doctor and I don't play one on the internet but it sounds like a good place to start until an actual vaccine is developed.

    Yep, that'd be the palliative I'd want.

    https://techstartups.com/2020/03/27/coronavirus-cure-new-results-french-study-shows-combination-hydroxychloroquine-plaquenil-azithromycin-successfully-treated-80-coronavirus-patients-significant-dr/

    And considering the shortened period for active infection, and especially the decreased  period for active contagion, it might not be the final cure, but small miracles are good, too.

    I've also seen some suggestions that chloroquine might be effective as a preventive to active infection.  Even if it's not 100% prevention, every little bit will help to get us over the hump.
    VirginiaGoatroper

    booksmart

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    Just make sure you take the proper form under a doctor's supervision, instead of self medicating...  :-\

    https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/man-dies-after-ingesting-chloroquine-attempt-prevent-coronavirus-n1167166


    Mikee5star

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    Just make sure you take the proper form under a doctor's supervision, instead of self medicating...  :-\


    True of any chemical medication, and most "natural" medication
    Alaska

    goatroper

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    Just make sure you take the proper form under a doctor's supervision, instead of self medicating...  :-\

    https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/man-dies-after-ingesting-chloroquine-attempt-prevent-coronavirus-n1167166



    Well, it isn't a cure for stupid.  And I can't think of anyone on this board that would need to be warned about that.
    VirginiaGoatroper

    coelacanth

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    Correct.  The couple in question ingested a commercial fish tank cleaner designed to disinfect home aquariums up to 150 gallons.  They apparently saw "chloroquine .  .  . " on the label and thought they'd found "the answer".  Which sort of makes one wonder what "the question" was.   :facepalm  Words matter - like the warning label on the package with the big picture of the fish and large print that said "NOT FOR HUMAN CONSUMPTION"- and that little modifier "phosphate" which turned out to be pretty important.  Sort of like the difference between "black powder" and "smokeless powder" when you're reloading ammunition. 
    Arizona" A republic, if you can keep it."

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