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Author Topic: Onward to the Future!  (Read 2037 times)

Nightcrawler

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Onward to the Future!
« on: January 13, 2015, 03:38:03 pm »
It's 2015, folks.  It is officially the future.  We lack hoverboards and flying cars.  To be honest, the biggest change to come along in the last few years is the smart phone revolution.  It's actually kind of a big deal, if you think about it: you have, in your hand, a device that can find the answer to almost any question you care to ask, almost instantly, from just about anywhere you happen to be.  It also takes pictures, records video, and does the internets.

So what comes next?  Here's where you get to make your predictions.  What do you think is actually likely going to happen in the coming years or decades?  Your predictions can focus on technology, politics, society, culture, whatever you care to.

Technology wise, I can't even begin to guess.  I think we'll eventually see the complete merger of television and the internet that's already begun with things like Hulu and Netflix.  Fiber optic internet will speed things up considerably, probably.  This is all in the next few years.  Farther out, I can't really guess.  I think the guys predicting a "singularity" are going to be sorely disappointed.  Superintelligent, sentient artificial intelligence is one of those things that always seems to be fifteen to twenty years away, and it turns out it's a lot more complex than some people previously assumed.

I think the pace of computer development will actually slow down for a bit.  Eventually they're going to come up against some physical limitations on how fast processors can be with current materials, and there'll be a plateau until they come up with something else. 

I think in the coming decades, what they call nanotechnology will make some big advances in many different areas.  I don't know if we're going to see the sci-fi-esque self-replicating nanites that make grey goo or whatever, but it could mean big things in manufacturing and materials science.

I do think, however, that in the coming decades automation is going to make a lot more jobs obsolete.  I'm not sure what the social implications of that will be.  What happens if you're in a situation where there just aren't enough jobs for everyone?  Poverty, crime, social stagnation, and government meddling all follow.

On the other hand, fully automated manufacturing might bring manufacturing back to the United States.  The reason a lot of it went overseas was for reduced labor costs.  If labor costs aren't a big issue anymore, it might be easier to make things domestically once again.  More and more low skilled jobs will disappear, but more higher skilled jobs may appear.

I also believe that information technology will bring us a surveillance state that would've made George Orwell blush.  We already seem to be heading that way, and there are no shortage of apologists who seem to think the NSA needs my phone records to stop terrorists.  I think cars will have government tracking devices made mandatory soon, and getting caught with one disabled will be a crime too.  It may get to the point where the police can remotely shut off your car as well.  For safety, of course, to stop high speed chases.

Politically, I can't make any predictions.  The world is changing, culture and society are changing, and so are their expectations and priorities.  If I had to guess, I expect things will get more socially libertine while becoming more authoritarian in nearly every other aspect.  I don't have a lot of warm-fuzzies about this.

Domestically, I think with the large influx of Mexican and Central American nationals into the US, the "Aztlan" movement will gain steam.  There are plenty of open borders advocates, and people who think "the border crossed us" to make this happen.  They may eventually seek recognition from the UN or some such.  It'll be almost purely symbolic, but it may happen.  Race-based identity politics, as divisive as they are, aren't going anywhere.

I think the the US is in for some pretty serious economic troubles.  I can't say what, when, or how bad, but we've had it good for so long that people seem to think it's just the natural way of things.  In truth, abject poverty is the normal state of mankind (if you make over $32,000 a year, you're pretty much in the top 1% worldwide).  It's only been recently that large segments of the population have been able to rise above that.  It's not a birthright, it's not a given, and it took generations of struggle, work, success, and failure to get us here.

As always, I guess we'll just have to see.

What do you guys think is coming?
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    JackCrow

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    Re: Onward to the Future!
    « Reply #1 on: January 13, 2015, 03:56:57 pm »
    Arizona"First comes smiles, then lies, last comes gunfire." - Roland of Gilead

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    qwert65

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    Re: Onward to the Future!
    « Reply #2 on: January 14, 2015, 09:48:53 am »
    I think we are in for a huge economic letdown, I truly believe we are seeing the end results of fiat currency-
         I also believe cash will become obsolete, it makes a lot of sense for the goverment and too few people realize it's value.
         I think there will be a major war in Europe in the next 10-15 years- there has been peace for the longest period in history and I believe the economic situation contributed to that. Once Germany tires of paying for everything some smaller countries will collapse.
         And of course there is Russia, we've been having hot and cold jabs against them since 1917 sooner or later we will have to see who is boss.

           Some positives ; I see huge medical advances with cancer treatment in the next 10 years especially with cytokines.
         I think people will get more interested in learning trades as college tuition becomes a burden, this may lead to decreased unemployment(though it will be tempered by the economic recession)

        Finally I think more ppl will turn to GOD, though perhaps not in the organized way of the past.

    Langenator

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    Re: Onward to the Future!
    « Reply #3 on: January 14, 2015, 01:43:06 pm »
    I think we'll see self driving cars in the not-so-distant future, followed soon thereafter by self-driving trucks of the big rig variety. (Which will put a whole bunch of people out of work.)

    As far as future energy goes, I'm skeptical that we'll see the beginnings of commercial fusion power within the next generation.  I grew up with my dad working at the Lawrence Livermore National Lab, where they did all kinds of fusion work (and I assume they still do.)  I've been hearing that workable commercial fusion power is "a generation away" since the 1980s.  So I take any predictions on that with a large grain of salt.  But if/when it does come, it will be a game changer for energy, at least for non-mobile uses.  I don't think there will be a large-scale replacement for the internal combustion engine for vehicles until there's a major breakthrough in electricity storage.

    On the political-economic front, I see the biggest land mine that isn't being talked much (outside of TEOTAWKI-OMFG type places and a few others like Instapundit) is the state/local government pension fund issue.  There's a whole lot of state and local government pension funds that are far, far from solvent, and they're facing the unpleasant choice between big tax hikes to cover the shortfall or going bankrupt to try to get out from under the problem.  This is already a statewide issue in California (where Vallejo and Stockton have already declared bankruptcy, and the UC system is asking for a huge tuition increase to fill it's pension shortfall) and has popped up in a few other localities so far (I'm looking at you, Detroit.)

    On the lighter side, I still do not see the Cubs winning the Series.
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